Almost a year ago, I chronicled the journey of two young scrumhalves and their attempts to further their careers. At that point, Rhodri Williams was a few short months out from starting in Wales's Junior World Cup march to the final, had started two Heineken Cup games for Scarlets scoring two tries in their impressive unbeaten start to European rugby, and was justly rewarded with a place in Warren Gatland's international squad. Conversely, Kieran Marmion, despite an extra year out from U20 level, had started a full year for Connacht in the Heineken Cup and Pro 12 was not part of Joe Schmidt's 41 man squad announced for 2013's end of year tests.
What a difference a year makes eh?
Since that time, Marmion participated in every game for Connacht, eventually forcing his way into Ireland squads and finally being capped against Argentina this summer. There is no doubting that the Marmion of October 2014 is a better player than the October 2013 version. His slow rise has come about through the benefit of playing consistently against top level players in the Heineken Cup and Pro 12, and getting better coaching, both from increased resources at Connacht, and the meticulous attention to detail of Joe Schmidt, and his own dedication and extra training that he undergoes on a weekly basis.
Marmion is fully deserving of a place in Ireland's squad, and will be pushing for a matchday spot. But what of Rhodri Williams? Williams made his Welsh debut against Tonga that November, coming on as a replacement. That is where the rise finished however. Williams lost his Scarlets place to first, Gareth Davies, and then Aled Davies being relegated to 3rd choice Scarlet's scrumhalf. Gareth Davies was in fantastic form, finishing as the league's top try scorer. Rhodri Williams however, only made a handful of Pro12 starts from then on, with all of his remaining Heineken Cup appearances coming as a sub, much like the majority of his Pro 12 caps last season. He did manage to make Wales's 6 Nations squad, and has a grand total of 3 replacement caps for Wales.
Despite Williams's fall in Scarlets, Gatland curiously continues to pick him, although he may now get his chance given that both of the Davies's in Scarlet's ranks are now injured.
So I ask the question again? Is is better to throw young players in the deep end, or is their development better suited to easing them into it?
To read the original article click here, and note that other players mentioned have also had interesting years. Tom Prydie is back in the Wales squad, James Coughlan is now in Pro D2, Aaron Cruden has had recent disciplinary problems, Victor Vito is now back in the New Zealand squad ahead of Steven Luatua while Scotland's Mark Bennett had a dreadful season, but is now shining after another year's experience. Danny Cipriani was denied his place in the England squad today, although he has been included in the previous year, while Kurtley Beale is in even more trouble with the ARU.
Wednesday 22 October 2014
Tuesday 21 October 2014
Takeaways from the Irish Squad Announcement
For those who haven't seen it, this is the Irish Squad for the November Internationals v South Africa, Australia and Georgia.
Looseheads: Jack McGrath, James Cronin, Dave Kilcoyne.
Hookers: Rory Best, Richardt Strauss, Sean Cronin.
Tightheads: Mike Ross, Nathan White, Rodney Ah You, Stephen Archer.
Loosehead Lock: Devin Toner, Dave Foley.
Tighthead Lock: Paul O'Connell, Mike McCarthy.
Blindside Flanker: Peter O'Mahony (8), Rhys Ruddock, Robbie Diack (8).
Openside Flanker: Chris Henry (8), Tommy O'Donnell, Dominic Ryan
No. 8: Jamie Heaslip.
Scrumhalves: Conor Murray, Kieran Marmion, Eoin Reddan.
Outhalves: Jonathan Sexton, Ian Madigan (12), Ian Keatley.
Wingers: Tommy Bowe, Simon Zebo, Craig Gilroy.
Inside Centres: Gordon D'Arcy, Stuart Olding.
Outside Centres: Jared Payne (15), Robbie Henshaw (15).
Fullbacks: Rob Kearney, Felix Jones, Darragh Leader (11-14)
A number of things caught my eye from this announcement, but pre announcement there was a big campaign for the likes of Duncan Casey and Dave Foley to be included over players familar to the squad.
If there is one thing we have learned since Joe Schmidt has taken over, is that he will always favour those familar to his plans and system over those new to it. Form doesn't mean a huge amount when it's comparing a newcomer to a previous fixture in the squad. He's brought players in, and left them on the periphery to learn his ways before giving them a shot, and he will continue to do that.
This most likely spells the end of some players hopes of being included in the World Cup squad, unless they spend time around the squad in the next month.
A 37 man squad is a strange number of players, especially when you look at the lack of player in some positions, notably number 8 and wing, while a plethora of options at blindside and tighthead prop.
What's notable is that there are four tighthead props involved, and that one of them isn't highly rated youngster Tadhg Furlong. I've also decided I am not going to criticise those named in this post, no matter how much I want to.
The next major talking point revolves around an in form outsider, and an out of form, slightly injured formerly favoured player. I think it's very notable that Ian Keatley has been chosen ahead of Paddy Jackson, one because not many saw it coming, but mostly because the influence of Les Kiss on the Ulster set up would have expected to bring in more Ulster faces. Instead, players like Jackson, Cave, Wilson, McCloskey and Declan Fitzpatrick miss out. Fitzpatrick may be permanently injured, but he was the one time hope of Irish tightheads, and now there are at least 4 options probably ahead of him.
It's also intriguing to note that the first real squad where a successor to Brian O'Driscoll can be found features a grand total of 0 natural outside centres. Of the players in the squad who have played professional rugby at 13, three are fullbacks - Robbie Henshaw, Jared Payne and Darragh Leader, two are wingers - Tommy Bowe and Craig Gilroy, one is an outhalf - Ian Madigan, and two inside centres - Gordon D'Arcy and Stuart Olding.
Despite this curveball, the announcement of two other fullbacks in the squad, while only three wingers, suggest that Payne and Henshaw are the de facto 13s, Leader is a back 3 cover and the wingers stay out wide.
A final congratulatory note to Darragh Leader's inclusion. He may not get any gametime, but it's clear that his involvement will only benefit him in the long run. A quiet guy that needs to come out of his shell more, will only develop with this confidence boost, and given the improvements Henshaw and Marmion have made to their games since being involved with Schmidt, I've no doubt that Leader will make similar strides which can only benefit the player, his province and maybe Ireland in the future.
Looseheads: Jack McGrath, James Cronin, Dave Kilcoyne.
Hookers: Rory Best, Richardt Strauss, Sean Cronin.
Tightheads: Mike Ross, Nathan White, Rodney Ah You, Stephen Archer.
Loosehead Lock: Devin Toner, Dave Foley.
Tighthead Lock: Paul O'Connell, Mike McCarthy.
Blindside Flanker: Peter O'Mahony (8), Rhys Ruddock, Robbie Diack (8).
Openside Flanker: Chris Henry (8), Tommy O'Donnell, Dominic Ryan
No. 8: Jamie Heaslip.
Scrumhalves: Conor Murray, Kieran Marmion, Eoin Reddan.
Outhalves: Jonathan Sexton, Ian Madigan (12), Ian Keatley.
Wingers: Tommy Bowe, Simon Zebo, Craig Gilroy.
Inside Centres: Gordon D'Arcy, Stuart Olding.
Outside Centres: Jared Payne (15), Robbie Henshaw (15).
Fullbacks: Rob Kearney, Felix Jones, Darragh Leader (11-14)
A number of things caught my eye from this announcement, but pre announcement there was a big campaign for the likes of Duncan Casey and Dave Foley to be included over players familar to the squad.
Familiarity
If there is one thing we have learned since Joe Schmidt has taken over, is that he will always favour those familar to his plans and system over those new to it. Form doesn't mean a huge amount when it's comparing a newcomer to a previous fixture in the squad. He's brought players in, and left them on the periphery to learn his ways before giving them a shot, and he will continue to do that.
This most likely spells the end of some players hopes of being included in the World Cup squad, unless they spend time around the squad in the next month.
A 37 man squad is a strange number of players, especially when you look at the lack of player in some positions, notably number 8 and wing, while a plethora of options at blindside and tighthead prop.
What's notable is that there are four tighthead props involved, and that one of them isn't highly rated youngster Tadhg Furlong. I've also decided I am not going to criticise those named in this post, no matter how much I want to.
Ulster losers
The next major talking point revolves around an in form outsider, and an out of form, slightly injured formerly favoured player. I think it's very notable that Ian Keatley has been chosen ahead of Paddy Jackson, one because not many saw it coming, but mostly because the influence of Les Kiss on the Ulster set up would have expected to bring in more Ulster faces. Instead, players like Jackson, Cave, Wilson, McCloskey and Declan Fitzpatrick miss out. Fitzpatrick may be permanently injured, but he was the one time hope of Irish tightheads, and now there are at least 4 options probably ahead of him.
Lucky Thirteen
It's also intriguing to note that the first real squad where a successor to Brian O'Driscoll can be found features a grand total of 0 natural outside centres. Of the players in the squad who have played professional rugby at 13, three are fullbacks - Robbie Henshaw, Jared Payne and Darragh Leader, two are wingers - Tommy Bowe and Craig Gilroy, one is an outhalf - Ian Madigan, and two inside centres - Gordon D'Arcy and Stuart Olding.
Despite this curveball, the announcement of two other fullbacks in the squad, while only three wingers, suggest that Payne and Henshaw are the de facto 13s, Leader is a back 3 cover and the wingers stay out wide.
A final congratulatory note to Darragh Leader's inclusion. He may not get any gametime, but it's clear that his involvement will only benefit him in the long run. A quiet guy that needs to come out of his shell more, will only develop with this confidence boost, and given the improvements Henshaw and Marmion have made to their games since being involved with Schmidt, I've no doubt that Leader will make similar strides which can only benefit the player, his province and maybe Ireland in the future.
Thursday 16 October 2014
Irish Eye On The World Cup Squad 2: PRE European Cups
A lot has happened since the last Irish Eye, so it's best to have a look at the top 31 in pole position to make Joe's squad for next year's squad and the closest contenders.
Injuries and form have changed a bit, and after these two weeks of European action, I expect more from Leinster, Munster and Ulster to put their hand up.
Major Changes:
I believe that James Cronin's form is better than Dave Kilcoyne. Their battle for the final loosehead spot will be fascinating, and one to watch. There is a real danger that the winner of this duel will be the only Munster front row representative in the squad.
Martin Moore's injury is putting him in doubt, but the biggest beneficiary of this is Tadhg Furlong, who may usurp Moore's position in Leinster, and find himself second choice Irish tighthead. This may or may not be dependent on Declan Fitzpatrick's permanent injuries.
Kieran Marmion's form has to place him in front of Isaac Boss, who should be under threat from Luke McGrath both at Leinster and in Ireland, but Matt O'Connor doesn't like good young players.
I've moved Ian Madigan from a 10 candidate to a 12 candidate, and put him on the short plane to England/Wales. Stuart McCloskey is putting pressure on Luke Marshall and Stuart Olding, and whoever gets the most gametime there will be a frontrunner, but it's much to early to see who that could be. With Madigan and D'Arcy however, it'll be a tight battle.
Fergus McFadden's injury coupled with Simon Zebo's form have swapped those two, although I expect that will only be temporary.
Jared Payne has been simultaneously keeping Darren Cave out of the Ulster team, and proving to Irish rugby that his best position is full back without a shadow of a doubt. If he gets time there, he could/should put Rob Kearney's first team place under threat, but Joe's a loyal guy.
Injuries to Andrew Trimble at the worst time benefit Craig Gilroy immensely. He'll be looking to leapfrog the inactive Dave Kearney when given his chance in the next two weeks.
Injuries and form have changed a bit, and after these two weeks of European action, I expect more from Leinster, Munster and Ulster to put their hand up.
| 1st Choice | 2nd Choice | 3rd Choice | 4th Choice | 5th Choice | 6th Choice | 7th Choice | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cian Healy | Jack McGrath | James Cronin | Dave Kilcoyne | Callum Black | Denis Buckley | |
| 2 | Rory Best | Sean Cronin | Richardt Strauss | Damien Varley | Rob Herring | Mike Sherry | Duncan Casey |
| 3 | Mike Ross | Martin Moore | Declan Fitzpatrick | Tadhg Furlong | Nathan White | Rodney Ah You | Stephen Archer |
| 4 | Devin Toner | Iain Henderson | Donnacha Ryan | Dave Foley | Donncha O'Callaghan | ||
| 5 | Paul O'Connell | Dan Tuohy | Mike McCarthy | Mick Kearney | |||
| 6 | Peter O'Mahony | Rhys Ruddock | Robbie Diack | Kevin McLaughlin | |||
| 7 | Sean O'Brien | Chris Henry | Jordi Murphy | Tommy O'Donnell | Dominic Ryan | Sean Dougall | |
| 8 | Jamie Heaslip | Robin Copeland | Roger Wilson | Jack Conan | |||
| 9 | Conor Murray | Eoin Reddan | Kieran Marmion | Isaac Boss | Luke McGrath | Paul Marshall | |
| 10 | Jonathan Sexton | Paddy Jackson | Ian Keatley | JJ Hanrahan | |||
| 11 | Andrew Trimble | Simon Zebo | Dave Kearney | Luke Fitzgerald | |||
| 12 | Gordon D'Arcy | Ian Madigan | Luke Marshall | Stuart McCloskey | Stuart Olding | Noel Reid | |
| 13 | Robbie Henshaw | Jared Payne | Darren Cave | ||||
| 14 | Tommy Bowe | Fergus McFadden | Craig Gilroy | Keith Earls | |||
| 15 | Rob Kearney | Felix Jones |
Major Changes:
I believe that James Cronin's form is better than Dave Kilcoyne. Their battle for the final loosehead spot will be fascinating, and one to watch. There is a real danger that the winner of this duel will be the only Munster front row representative in the squad.
Martin Moore's injury is putting him in doubt, but the biggest beneficiary of this is Tadhg Furlong, who may usurp Moore's position in Leinster, and find himself second choice Irish tighthead. This may or may not be dependent on Declan Fitzpatrick's permanent injuries.
Kieran Marmion's form has to place him in front of Isaac Boss, who should be under threat from Luke McGrath both at Leinster and in Ireland, but Matt O'Connor doesn't like good young players.
I've moved Ian Madigan from a 10 candidate to a 12 candidate, and put him on the short plane to England/Wales. Stuart McCloskey is putting pressure on Luke Marshall and Stuart Olding, and whoever gets the most gametime there will be a frontrunner, but it's much to early to see who that could be. With Madigan and D'Arcy however, it'll be a tight battle.
Fergus McFadden's injury coupled with Simon Zebo's form have swapped those two, although I expect that will only be temporary.
Jared Payne has been simultaneously keeping Darren Cave out of the Ulster team, and proving to Irish rugby that his best position is full back without a shadow of a doubt. If he gets time there, he could/should put Rob Kearney's first team place under threat, but Joe's a loyal guy.
Injuries to Andrew Trimble at the worst time benefit Craig Gilroy immensely. He'll be looking to leapfrog the inactive Dave Kearney when given his chance in the next two weeks.
Wednesday 15 October 2014
I was saying Boo Urns
Never one to be left out of the loop, I must rush to join the chorus of Irish disapprovers in previewing the European rugby competition, that the English are already championing up to an extortionate amount. But, this isn't your typical preview, rather a couple of points that no one seems to be mentioning in their exulted praise of debt-ridden sport.
First, each English written preview starts off with phrases like "after all of the chaos and politics is better off". Is it unreasonable to ask how in the world you can possibly know that already? Unless my life has distracted me sufficiently to miss an entire season of this brand new competition, nothing has happened yet.
This claim is predicated on the fact that the groups are stronger than ever before. Nonsense. Let's take a look at Leinster's pools from the last few years.
2013/14: Leinster, Northampton, Castres, Ospreys
2012/13: Clermont, Leinster, Exeter, Scarlets
2011/12: Leinster, Glasgow, Bath, Montpeiller.
Further detail in that reveals in 2013/14, Leinster faced the Top 14 champions in Castres and one of the top 2 favourites (I'll come back to this) in Northampton? who went on to win the Premiership.
In 2012/13, Leinster were up against the best team from that era in Europe in Clermont, while the previous year, Glasgow were beginning their upward rise in the Pro 12, as were Montpeiller.
Compare that to this year, where Harlequins growth has stalled after some encouraging performances, Wasps are being uprooted and their main home resilence is being taken away from them, while Castres have started the Top 14 with 6 losses in their first 9, while conceding and average of 28.3 points per game, and only scoring 20.8.
But no, you're right the competition is much harder. It's not like before in those "easy" pools when Clermont and Leinster were together where both teams knew that relying on qualifying as a runner up was futile. Back in my day, European Rugby only allowed 2 of the 6 runners up to qualify for the quarter finals. That's 33% for those of us who prefer percentages. Let's compare that to this new fangled system of allowing 3 of these "elite" runners up into the quarters. Which for those who can do percentages looks a lot like 60%.
So this myth that it's harder to qualify for the quarters in this new fancy way of doing things actually seems to be easier. Because, I don't know about you, but as a team looking out for my own interests, I'd much rather have the cushion of knowing that second place gives me nearly double the change of qualifying.
This now means, according to other previews, that all games in all pools matter. What these goldfish forget is, none of that has changed. What made the Heineken Cup so magical was that every weekend counted. Any loss was a hammer blow to all sides, but now two or more losses could get a third second place team into the quarter finals. That's the price of being "elite".
I fail to see how pointing to the expansion of Super Rugby helps the argument that things are now better in Europe, especially when one preview mentioned that it took Western Force a whole 9 years to be competitive since they were introduced. Let's take a moment and reflect on this. Imagine how long it would have taken the Force to be competitive if they hadn't been playing against quality opposition week in and week out?
Take the European example of Treviso, who after 3 years in the Pro 12 started making progress by finishing a respectable 7th, before their squad was plundered by the English and French. How can any team continue to keep players like Botes, De Marchi, Cittadini, McLean, Williams, Vosawau, Loamanu, Ghiraldini, Barbieri, Rizzo, Di Bernardo, Berquist and Semenzato without the lure of top rugby?
At their height, they conceded 27.8 points per game and scored 17.8 points per game in Europe. Not too dissimilar from Castres record now is it? Should the English cast those lot out too?
Club rugby has been dealt a development blow in Europe, and it's time the English stopped pretending like things are fine and dandy.
First, each English written preview starts off with phrases like "after all of the chaos and politics is better off". Is it unreasonable to ask how in the world you can possibly know that already? Unless my life has distracted me sufficiently to miss an entire season of this brand new competition, nothing has happened yet.
This claim is predicated on the fact that the groups are stronger than ever before. Nonsense. Let's take a look at Leinster's pools from the last few years.
2013/14: Leinster, Northampton, Castres, Ospreys
2012/13: Clermont, Leinster, Exeter, Scarlets
2011/12: Leinster, Glasgow, Bath, Montpeiller.
Further detail in that reveals in 2013/14, Leinster faced the Top 14 champions in Castres and one of the top 2 favourites (I'll come back to this) in Northampton? who went on to win the Premiership.
In 2012/13, Leinster were up against the best team from that era in Europe in Clermont, while the previous year, Glasgow were beginning their upward rise in the Pro 12, as were Montpeiller.
Compare that to this year, where Harlequins growth has stalled after some encouraging performances, Wasps are being uprooted and their main home resilence is being taken away from them, while Castres have started the Top 14 with 6 losses in their first 9, while conceding and average of 28.3 points per game, and only scoring 20.8.
But no, you're right the competition is much harder. It's not like before in those "easy" pools when Clermont and Leinster were together where both teams knew that relying on qualifying as a runner up was futile. Back in my day, European Rugby only allowed 2 of the 6 runners up to qualify for the quarter finals. That's 33% for those of us who prefer percentages. Let's compare that to this new fangled system of allowing 3 of these "elite" runners up into the quarters. Which for those who can do percentages looks a lot like 60%.
So this myth that it's harder to qualify for the quarters in this new fancy way of doing things actually seems to be easier. Because, I don't know about you, but as a team looking out for my own interests, I'd much rather have the cushion of knowing that second place gives me nearly double the change of qualifying.
This now means, according to other previews, that all games in all pools matter. What these goldfish forget is, none of that has changed. What made the Heineken Cup so magical was that every weekend counted. Any loss was a hammer blow to all sides, but now two or more losses could get a third second place team into the quarter finals. That's the price of being "elite".
I fail to see how pointing to the expansion of Super Rugby helps the argument that things are now better in Europe, especially when one preview mentioned that it took Western Force a whole 9 years to be competitive since they were introduced. Let's take a moment and reflect on this. Imagine how long it would have taken the Force to be competitive if they hadn't been playing against quality opposition week in and week out?
Take the European example of Treviso, who after 3 years in the Pro 12 started making progress by finishing a respectable 7th, before their squad was plundered by the English and French. How can any team continue to keep players like Botes, De Marchi, Cittadini, McLean, Williams, Vosawau, Loamanu, Ghiraldini, Barbieri, Rizzo, Di Bernardo, Berquist and Semenzato without the lure of top rugby?
At their height, they conceded 27.8 points per game and scored 17.8 points per game in Europe. Not too dissimilar from Castres record now is it? Should the English cast those lot out too?
Club rugby has been dealt a development blow in Europe, and it's time the English stopped pretending like things are fine and dandy.
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