With the Irish 6 nations squad being announced, I thought, as I usually do, to have a crack at naming my team.
Before I do, I think the set up that England have, with an EPS, and a Saxon squad announcement seems to be a good way to go, and that is the set up I'm going to have.
Personally, I would have 38 in any squad, with at least two in each position, with extra prop, hooker, second row, back row, scrumhalf, outhalf, centre and back three.
However, I think Deccie usually names less, and it's an awkward number like 31 or 33.
First off, the guaranteed members of the squad are: Healy, Best, Ross, Ryan, McCarthy, O'Brien, Heaslip, Sexton, O'Driscoll, D'Arcy, Gilroy, Zebo and Kearney.
This leaves 20 places.
One of the spots is a direct toss up between Dave Kilcoyne and Tom Court. Heck, Deccie might even name both. Both have been in good form, and both played very well at the weekend, with Tom Court in particular destroying the Glasgow scrum. However, with the memory of Twickenham, I think Court is behind Kilcoyne at the moment.
With Strauss only just returning from injury next week, and Cronin being in great form, Cronin has to be named as 2nd choice behind Best. Although Best hasn't been in the best form, Ali Kellock profiting from some less than impressive throwing on Friday night. Mike Sherry has been in decent form and should be the alternative should Kidney decide Strauss isn't ready.
Back up to Ross is a bit of a problem. Bent seemed to have fixed the problem, but his less than impressive showings since the internationals have us doubting him, again. Declan Fitzpatrick made a long awaited comeback from injury coming off the bench on Friday, so he might sneak back in again. The reality is though, that Deccie will ask Ross to play every game, and 80 minutes as much as possible.
Ryan and McCarthy have the second row slots sown up. With Tuohy injured, another should-be squad member's place is up for grabs. Donnacha O'Callaghan has been in decent form and should be involved, with the last spot between the impressive Dave O'Callaghan and Devin Toner. Deccie might decide that Iain Henderson will provide enough cover for the second row though.
Blindside flanker has a lot of options, with Sean O'Brien, Kevin McLaughlin and Rhys Ruddock from Leinster, Henderson from Ulster, and O'Mahony from Munster. I don't think Kidney likes McLaughlin, and O'Mahony is a certainity. Leaving a straight duel between Henderson and Ruddock, which Henderson will win in Deccie's eyes. Deccie always brings Muldoon in here too.
Openside will be Henry. His back up could be Tommy O'Donnell, who has impressed recently, and is my shout for a new cap. O'Brien and O'Mahony can cover here too.
Back up for Heaslip is provided by Henry and O'Mahony.
Scrumhalf- Murray is the favourite at the moment, while the public still calls for Marshall, he seems to be no 3 ahead of Boss, who is in the best form out of the Irish scrum-halves. We aren't blessed with talent in this department at the moment. Marmion and Heaney for the future, with Marmion an outside chance here.
With O'Gara's likely citing, Kidney will only call up Jackson as Sexton's back up. Provided Jackson overcomes the injury suffered at the weekend, otherwise the call between Keatley and Madigan is a mystery. One suspects that Kidney chooses Munster when in doubt, and Keatley is probably a safer option. I don't rate either to be honest, although Madigan is probably the better of the two.
With Luke Marshall injured, Paddy Wallace is in with an outside chance of being called back up. He's been in good form. But D'Arcy has been having an Indian summer, and McFadden will provide the cover at 12,
BOD is back. All is well. Unfortunately Earls is his back up. Darren Cave should be, and now his place is in doubt.
Gilroy, Trimble and Zebo are certainties, and Luke Fitzgerald should be, but Deccie isn't a forgiving person so we'll see. McFadden is also here. Also an outside chance for Niall Morris. I think Earls has been fully converted to 13 as well, but you never know with Deccie. If O'Hallorhan's injury isn't serious, I'd have a look at him too. He is a great prospect, being ignored because he's at Connacht. He is in great form too.
Kearney is back. and with Felix Jones performing so badly, Zebo must be the back up here. Hopefully Henshaw can't be far away either.
MY GUESS FOR ACTUAL:
Healy, Kilcoyne, Court
Best, Cronin, Strauss,
Ross, Bent,
Ryan, McCarthy, O'Callaghan,
O'Brien, Henderson,
Henry, O'Donnell
Heaslip, O'Mahony (18)
Murray, Reddan, Marshall
Sexton, Jackson,
D'Arcy, McFadden,
O'Driscoll, Earls,
Gilroy, Zebo, Trimble, Fitzgerald,
Kearney (13)
Wolfhounds Squad: (Won't be as many as players will drop down)
McGrath, Black, Buckley
Sherry, Varley,
Fitzpatrick, Archer
Toner, Dave O'Callaghan, Kearney
Ruddock, Murphy
Dougall, Ryan, Diack
Wilson
Marmion, Boss, Heaney
Keatley, O'Connor, Madigan
McSharry, Allen
Cave, Barnes
O'Hallorhan, Cochrane
Henshaw, Conway
I would love to see people like Niall Annett, Mick Kearney, Sean Dougall, Dominic Ryan, Tiernan O'Hallorhan, Michael Heaney, Kieran Marmion, Dave McSharry involved in the Wolfhounds.
Just a nod from Deccie to say he's noticed them, so we know he's not stupid.
MY SQUAD:
Healy, Kilcoyne, Court
Best, Cronin, Strauss,
Ross, Fitzpatrick
Ryan, McCarthy, Henderson, O'Callaghan
O'Brien, Ruddock,
Henry, O'Donnell,
Heaslip, O'Mahoney
Boss, Reddan, Marmion,
Sexton, Jackson, Madigan,
D'Arcy, McFadden,
O'Driscoll, Cave,
Gilroy, Fitzgerald, Trimble, Zebo,
Kearney, Henshaw
I should explain with the scrumhalves, which I'm not terribly happy about. I would give Boss a spot due to him being in form, same with Marmion, he needs to be rewarded. I would have Marshall in there too, but I don't think there would be enough experience, leaving a shoot-out between off colour Reddan, or someone who needs to go away and learn things in Murray.
A note on Murray, I think he will be good, he just seems stuck in a rut at the moment, and a Tommy Bowe like break from the international scene might give him the kick up the arse he needs.
Wolfhounds:
Court, McGrath, Buckley,
Sherry, Annett,
Fitzpatrick, Bent, Archer
Kearney, Denton, Dave O'Callaghan
Murphy, Ruddock
Ryan, Dougall, O'Donnell
Auva'a, Butler
Heaney, Marshall
Madigan, Olding,
McSharry, Allen
O'Malley, Barnes
O'Hallorhan, Cochrane, O'Dea
Henshaw
Tuesday, 15 January 2013
Heineken Cup permutations UPDATED
Sky Sport's permutations
Sky give a decent overview of the situation, but don't into too much detail. I've been looking at the remaining fixtures and come up with things that seem likely, or pivotal games for all concerned.
sidenote: This is why the Heineken Cup is such a fantastic competition. So many things to play for even if you are qualified ensures that you don't get meaningless games like you would in the Champions League.
extra thought: Why not incorporate the quarter final draw system into the RWC? It could make things so much more interesting. IT's one of the best things about rugby, why not use that?
Anyway, I digress.
In chronological order:
Friday: Pool 3
RESULT : Harlequins 28 points
Not much to play for on Friday. The only game of note is between Biarritz and Harlequins in Biarritz. Harlequins are already through, and I think have a home quarter final secured, with 24 points and only 3 other teams capable of reaching that total. Biarritz can get a maximum of 19 points which would be enough to put them in the mix. Hopefully Harlequins are aiming for as high a seeding as possible, which would mean two things;
1. Biarritz won't get 19 points and are therefore not going to qualify
2. They seem the "weakest" of the teams likely to get home quarter finals. Which will be relevant later from an Irish P.O.V.
Prediction: Harlequins 28 points.
Saturday: 1.30 GMT Pool 4
Both games seem relevant in terms of teams still mathematically in the competition. Northampton travel to Glasgow needing maximum 5 points to be in with a chance of qualifying on 19 points. One thing against them is their low try tally which stands at 6 at the moment. A 5 pointer brings it to at least 10, but will that be enough? It is a poor Glasgow side, so backing Northampton to get the 4 tries is likely.
The other game in the pool sees Ulster, who have already qualified, travel to Castres. Ulster have never won in France, and need a win to secure a home quarter final. Castres are still mathematically in with a chance, and can qualify with 18 points, but so many things need to go their way, that I'm not going to waste my time or yours. Bonus point win for Ulster guarentees a home quarter, which seems necessary given some of the other ties, but Castres are no mugs, and having never won in France, a bonus point win seems a daunting challenge. It all depends on whether or not Castres are up for it and whether they want a Challenge Cup place or not.
Here's hoping.
Prediction: Ulster 23 points.
3.40 GMT Pool 6
Possibly the most important tie of the round. Scratch that, Definitely the most important tie of the competition so far.
Toulon (23 points, 23 tries) travel to Montpeiller (18 points). Toulon will qualify as at least a second place team, but Montpeiller can overtake them with a bonus point win and more than 22 points. It seems unlikely.
Toulon only need a point to qualify for a home quarter final, but a bonus point win, almost guarentees them one of the top two seedings, and theoretically an "easier" draw.
If Montepeiller win, or manage to get any points from this game at all, they will squeeze through.
From an Irish point of view, a Toulon bonus point win, by more than 7, and denying Montpeiller 4 tries, both frees up both 2nd place spots, and ensures one of the 2nd place teams play Toulon.
Another, Here's hoping.
Prediction: Toulon 28 points, Montpellier 18 points.
6pm GMT Pool 5
To the Irish provinces, Leinster, 15 points, need at least a win. 19 points might be enough, but with their low try count, 8, they can't be assured of that. At this stage they will know how many 2nd place spots are up for grabs with Montpeiller and Toulon's game having finished.
If Montpeiller lose and don't have more than 20 points, then Leinster qualify with a bonus point win, provided how unlikely it is that Toulouse will get two points in a loss to Leicester (to come). A win without the bonus, might be enough, if Biarritz don't reach 19, and other results go their way.
But let's not leave it up to chance eh?
Clermont, like Toulon, need only a point to have a home quarter final, and effectively a semi final place. A bonus point win, which is likely given their form and Scarlet's atrociousness, means they will seed at least 3rd, and probably one of the top two, meaning watch out Irish provinces. It all comes back to that Pool 6 game.
Prediction: Clermont 28 points, Leinster 20 points
Sunday: 12 45 GMT Pool 1
Munster (15) host Racing, and Saracens (18) host Edinburgh.
Munster, still in with an outside chance of winning the group, but they won't. Edinburgh are too bad a side to trouble Saracens, and Sarries are likely to get a bonus point win, and will be sniffing at the heels of Ulster to see who gets to be at home between them. If Ulster didn't get the bonus point, Sarries will be max 5 tries away from overtaking them, which given they are going for a 4 try bonus point, is nothing. Those teams are likely to be seeded 4th and 5th, and will play each other.
Munster also need a win. They will know how much of a win they'll need, and given Biarritz shouldn't be on 19 points, they will have the most tries of any team on 19, so a bonus point might not be necessary. Which is fortunate, because I don't think they will get it. After last weekends poor performance, I'm not 100% sure they will even win. But again, with a French side out of the competition, they might try and focus on the Top 14, especially given it's an away game.
Prediction: Saracens 23 points, Munster 19 points.
3pm GMT: Pool 2
Given Spratt's last minute try for Ospreys in that cracking draw in the Liberty stadium at the weekend, this game takes on slightly less significance. Still important though.
Leicester (16 points) take on Toulouse (18 points)
It's winner takes all, unless Leicester win by 7, without 4 tries, but Toulose get 4 tries. In that scenario both teams end up on 20 points, and Toulouse advance given their superior head to head match point count. However, That should be enough for Leicester to take a runners up spot, and with 13 tries, that would be likely.
The only other possibility for both teams to go through is if Leicester win with a bonus, and Toulouse get a second place, or Toulouse could still qualify with one match point on 19 points, if the second place team only has that much.
This is probably hardest to call. All of those situations seem unlikely, and I think Toulouse will be too good and avoid all the complications.
In fact, given this is the last game of the round, were any of those outcomes to arise, one would have to suspect some match-fixing. But that's only a frivolous observation.
Prediction: Toulouse 22 points.
Quarter Final Draw
1. Harlequins v 8. Munster
2. Toulon v 7. Leinster
3. Clermont v 6. Toulouse
4. Ulster v 5. Saracens
Gives a solid chance of all three Irish sides in the semis with a mouth watering tie of Clermont and Toulouse.
Sky give a decent overview of the situation, but don't into too much detail. I've been looking at the remaining fixtures and come up with things that seem likely, or pivotal games for all concerned.
sidenote: This is why the Heineken Cup is such a fantastic competition. So many things to play for even if you are qualified ensures that you don't get meaningless games like you would in the Champions League.
extra thought: Why not incorporate the quarter final draw system into the RWC? It could make things so much more interesting. IT's one of the best things about rugby, why not use that?
Anyway, I digress.
In chronological order:
Friday: Pool 3
RESULT : Harlequins 28 points
Not much to play for on Friday. The only game of note is between Biarritz and Harlequins in Biarritz. Harlequins are already through, and I think have a home quarter final secured, with 24 points and only 3 other teams capable of reaching that total. Biarritz can get a maximum of 19 points which would be enough to put them in the mix. Hopefully Harlequins are aiming for as high a seeding as possible, which would mean two things;
1. Biarritz won't get 19 points and are therefore not going to qualify
2. They seem the "weakest" of the teams likely to get home quarter finals. Which will be relevant later from an Irish P.O.V.
Prediction: Harlequins 28 points.
Saturday: 1.30 GMT Pool 4
Both games seem relevant in terms of teams still mathematically in the competition. Northampton travel to Glasgow needing maximum 5 points to be in with a chance of qualifying on 19 points. One thing against them is their low try tally which stands at 6 at the moment. A 5 pointer brings it to at least 10, but will that be enough? It is a poor Glasgow side, so backing Northampton to get the 4 tries is likely.
The other game in the pool sees Ulster, who have already qualified, travel to Castres. Ulster have never won in France, and need a win to secure a home quarter final. Castres are still mathematically in with a chance, and can qualify with 18 points, but so many things need to go their way, that I'm not going to waste my time or yours. Bonus point win for Ulster guarentees a home quarter, which seems necessary given some of the other ties, but Castres are no mugs, and having never won in France, a bonus point win seems a daunting challenge. It all depends on whether or not Castres are up for it and whether they want a Challenge Cup place or not.
Here's hoping.
Prediction: Ulster 23 points.
3.40 GMT Pool 6
Possibly the most important tie of the round. Scratch that, Definitely the most important tie of the competition so far.
Toulon (23 points, 23 tries) travel to Montpeiller (18 points). Toulon will qualify as at least a second place team, but Montpeiller can overtake them with a bonus point win and more than 22 points. It seems unlikely.
Toulon only need a point to qualify for a home quarter final, but a bonus point win, almost guarentees them one of the top two seedings, and theoretically an "easier" draw.
If Montepeiller win, or manage to get any points from this game at all, they will squeeze through.
From an Irish point of view, a Toulon bonus point win, by more than 7, and denying Montpeiller 4 tries, both frees up both 2nd place spots, and ensures one of the 2nd place teams play Toulon.
Another, Here's hoping.
Prediction: Toulon 28 points, Montpellier 18 points.
6pm GMT Pool 5
To the Irish provinces, Leinster, 15 points, need at least a win. 19 points might be enough, but with their low try count, 8, they can't be assured of that. At this stage they will know how many 2nd place spots are up for grabs with Montpeiller and Toulon's game having finished.
If Montpeiller lose and don't have more than 20 points, then Leinster qualify with a bonus point win, provided how unlikely it is that Toulouse will get two points in a loss to Leicester (to come). A win without the bonus, might be enough, if Biarritz don't reach 19, and other results go their way.
But let's not leave it up to chance eh?
Clermont, like Toulon, need only a point to have a home quarter final, and effectively a semi final place. A bonus point win, which is likely given their form and Scarlet's atrociousness, means they will seed at least 3rd, and probably one of the top two, meaning watch out Irish provinces. It all comes back to that Pool 6 game.
Prediction: Clermont 28 points, Leinster 20 points
Sunday: 12 45 GMT Pool 1
Munster (15) host Racing, and Saracens (18) host Edinburgh.
Munster, still in with an outside chance of winning the group, but they won't. Edinburgh are too bad a side to trouble Saracens, and Sarries are likely to get a bonus point win, and will be sniffing at the heels of Ulster to see who gets to be at home between them. If Ulster didn't get the bonus point, Sarries will be max 5 tries away from overtaking them, which given they are going for a 4 try bonus point, is nothing. Those teams are likely to be seeded 4th and 5th, and will play each other.
Munster also need a win. They will know how much of a win they'll need, and given Biarritz shouldn't be on 19 points, they will have the most tries of any team on 19, so a bonus point might not be necessary. Which is fortunate, because I don't think they will get it. After last weekends poor performance, I'm not 100% sure they will even win. But again, with a French side out of the competition, they might try and focus on the Top 14, especially given it's an away game.
Prediction: Saracens 23 points, Munster 19 points.
3pm GMT: Pool 2
Given Spratt's last minute try for Ospreys in that cracking draw in the Liberty stadium at the weekend, this game takes on slightly less significance. Still important though.
Leicester (16 points) take on Toulouse (18 points)
It's winner takes all, unless Leicester win by 7, without 4 tries, but Toulose get 4 tries. In that scenario both teams end up on 20 points, and Toulouse advance given their superior head to head match point count. However, That should be enough for Leicester to take a runners up spot, and with 13 tries, that would be likely.
The only other possibility for both teams to go through is if Leicester win with a bonus, and Toulouse get a second place, or Toulouse could still qualify with one match point on 19 points, if the second place team only has that much.
This is probably hardest to call. All of those situations seem unlikely, and I think Toulouse will be too good and avoid all the complications.
In fact, given this is the last game of the round, were any of those outcomes to arise, one would have to suspect some match-fixing. But that's only a frivolous observation.
Prediction: Toulouse 22 points.
Quarter Final Draw
1. Harlequins v 8. Munster
2. Toulon v 7. Leinster
3. Clermont v 6. Toulouse
4. Ulster v 5. Saracens
Gives a solid chance of all three Irish sides in the semis with a mouth watering tie of Clermont and Toulouse.
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