Each Round 6 games implications

Friday 8pm. Pool 1.

Leinster (17) v Ospreys (5)

Northampton (13) v Castres (9)

Nothing in this pool is confirmed other than both Ospreys and Castres are out, with the best Castres can hope for is an unlikely 2nd place. If they were to finish 2nd by winning 5-0 on matchpoints, it's very likely that they will be the 6th best runners up and out of Europe anyway.

For Northampton it's simple, they need a bonus point win to finish on 18, and hope Leinster get nothing at home to Ospreys. If they finish on the same number of points, Leinster go through with a better head to head record (5-4). Northampton are still alive in the race for second place, but are relying on other results to go their way.

That game is Saracens v Connacht. A Saracens win denies Northampton completely. A draw means that Saints on 13 points could give Cardiff a try total to match with a bonus point win. A win for Saints in this case means that Cardiff can go through with a bonus point win, or if they overhaul Northamptons one try advantage over them. This case would open the door for Harlequins and Edinburgh to record bonus point victories and leapfrog them, but more on that later. A Connacht victory with no bonus point puts them in the equation, but due to their disadvantage in the try scoring column it's unlikely. A Connacht win with a try bonus means that Northampton have to get a bonus themselves, and score two tries less than Connacht or more. Got that? Me neither.

Leinster will be looking to finish with as many points as possible, in their unlikely bid for a home quarter. They'll need two of Toulon, Toulouse, Clermont and Munster to slip up for that to happen.

Saturday 1.35 Pool 3

Saracens (15) v Connacht (13)

Zebre (0) v Toulouse (19)

A Toulouse losing bonus point or more confirms them as pool winners. Anything less, and a Saracens bonus point win will see them top. In that case, Toulouse will still be the second best runner up.

As mentioned before, Saracens v Connacht is the key game of the round. A Saracens win and they are through as second best runner up. Unless Toulouse get nothing from Zebre, or Ulster pulverise Leicester and Saracens get a bonus point, which lifts them to best runners up.

A draw between Connacht and Saracens eliminates Connacht, and opens the door for the other 2nd placed teams, as does a draw with a Saracens try bonus point (18), but Saracens have a significant lead in the try scoring stakes (18).

Connacht can go through with a win, if Northampton fail to win, which they will know already, or if Cardiff lose, which they won't. Or if Harlequins and Edinburgh fail to get the bonus point, which they won't know. A bonus point increases their chances, and allows Northampton to win without a bonus and still have Connacht through. Connacht will already know what Northampton do. Cardiff will need a bonus point win in the game immediately after this one. Everything hinges on this game.

Saturday 3.40 Pool 2

Cardiff (13) v Exeter (8)

Glasgow (10) v Toulon (20)

Toulon will win the group and can be seeded anywhere from 1st to 6th. A bonus point win means only Ulster or Leicester can beat them, giving them at least a 2nd seed, while a win can allow Clermont and Toulouse a chance to overhaul them, but would still give them 4th seed and a home quarter final. Anything less and Munster and Leinster have a chance to drop them down to an away quarter final.

Glasgow have no chance of finishing as one of the two best quarter finalists, but a win can secure them an Amlin Cup quarter final. 

Cardiff will already know what's at stage having watched Connacht and Northampton. Their scenarios have been discussed thoroughly already, Exeter are already free in April and May.

Saturday 6pm Pool 6

Leicester (20) v Ulster (22)

Montpeiller v Treviso

Both Montpeiller and Treviso are out of everything.

The winner at Welford Road will be hosting a quarter final with the loser as one of the two runners up. 

Leicester win, and Ulster are 7th seeds. Leicester could be anywhere from 1st to 4th seeds. A bonus point win for Leicester guarantees them one of the top 2 seeds.

Ulster win, Leicester are 7th or 8th depending only on Saracens, with Ulster definitely 1st seeds.

Draw sees Ulster with a home quarter, 1st to 4th, and Leicester are definite 7th seeds.

An unlikely Leicester win with two Ulster bonus points is the same as a draw.

Sunday 12.45pm Pool 6

Munster (18) v Edinburgh (12)

Perpignan (7) v Gloucester (9)

Perpignan are out and cannot make the Amlin quarters either. A win for Gloucester and a loss for Edinburgh keeps them in the hunt for an Amlin spot, but it will be unlikely. They will already know if Northampton, Cardiff, Saracens and Connacht have a spot, and will be posting a target for Harlequins for the last spot. Quins will not need much to overhaul them.

Munster will be hoping for a slipup from Toulon, Toulouse or Clermont, and are first in line to benefit with a home quarter final. A bonus point win aids them, and they will already know if thats enough to beat Toulouse or Toulon. Clermont play the following game and will know what they need to go ahead of Munster.

Edinburgh are in the hunt for a 2nd place, as long as Saracens slip up and Connacht, Northampton and Cardiff don't get try bonus points. If any of them win, they need a bonus point and to score more tries than all of those and Harlequins

Sunday 3pm Pool 4

Scarlets (10) v Harlequins (12)

Clermont (19) v Racing (7)

Racing are out of everything.

Scarlets could be out of everything at this stage, but there is a small chance that a win gets them into the Amlin quarters.

Harlequins need Saracens to slip up and Connacht, Northampton and Cardiff don't get try bonus points. If any of them win, they need a bonus point and to score more tries than all of those and Edinburgh.

Most likely:

1. Toulouse v Saracens
2. Toulon v Ulster
3. Leicester v Leinster
4. Clermont v Munster

Best results for Irish provinces:

In matchpoints:

Leinster 5-0 Ospreys
Saints 0-4 Castres
Saracens 0-5 Connacht
Toulouse 0-5 Zebre
Cardiff 0-4 Exeter
Glasgow 4-0 Toulon
Leicester 0-5 Ulster
Montpeiller 0-5 Treviso
Munster 5-0 Edinburgh
Perpignan 4-0 Gloucester
Scarlets 5-0 Harlequins
Clermont 1-5 Racing

Leading to

Ulster v Connacht
Munster v Leicester
Leinster v Toulouse
Toulon v Clermont

And yes, I know that isn't going to happen, but I can dream.

What I'll miss most about the Heineken Cup

From harpinonrugby

Before you start, this isn't another article about the blame game that is ongoing in European rugby circles. There will be no mention of splits in revenues, qualifying by merits, governance or power grabbing.

When the competition gets going, in it's current format it's close to perfect. Close to, because really with all the outside fuss about it, it can't really be called perfect can it? I believe that reducing the number of teams from 24 to 20 will compromise the excitement of the pool stages.

What other sporting competition creates the excitement that the Heineken Cup raises with each gameday? What other sporting competition in the world keeps every fan of every team on the lookout for every result, while attempting to calculate every permutation?

Two things give the Heineken Cup as it is this selling point. Firstly, the fact that not every 2nd place team qualifies for the quarter finals. This gives every team the emphasis to keep pushing and ensure they secure first place in their pool, while at the same time giving second place teams the incentive to try and get as many points as possible to be one of the lucky two. In no other competition are bonus points as treasured as in the Heineken Cup, and it really works.

Even for first placed teams, the quarter final draws gives further incentives to collect as many points as possible to ensure a home draw, and an "easy" as possible draw. I say "easy" because with all 6 countries participating, there are no "easy" games in Europe anymore.

There is no resting of players like in soccer's equivalent the Champions League once you are qualified after Round 4. Every fan looks at every game, in every round, and every bonus point.

Already in round 4, I'm mentally ruing bonus points that got away, or delighted that bonus points for other teams never arrived. I know that this mental calculations will be ongoing until the final whistle of the last game in Round 6. It's only then that everything is known.

Why lose this excitement?

The beauty of the Heineken Cup

via ercrugby.ie

With the draw for the Heineken Cup throwing up some of the tastiest pools in years, this should serve as a deterrent to any Anglo-French breakaway. The competition wouldn't be what it is today without the input from the Irish provinces, from Welsh regions like the Ospreys, or from improving Glasgow or Treviso. 

Those clubs are challenging the rights of the Italian and Scottish teams that automatically qualify for the Heineken Cup and who get more money per team than the English and French teams who they maintain bring all the money to the competition. All of which makes 100% sense.

However, some of their suggestions for reform are too drastic, too unfair in the other direction, and are designed to losing some of the magic of the Heineken Cup.

via bbc.co.uk

And there are things about the Heineken Cup that make it the best competition in all of sport. There are few competitions that generate a huge amount of excitement with each match day One of the main reasons for this is the way nothing is decided about qualifying from pools until every game is played.

This comes about from two reasons; 1. The top placed winner plays the 8th seed in the quarters at the home of the top seed, and so on. This ensures that even if a team has qualified from their pool, that they still put out strong teams and keep going in every game. Personally, I think this is a great idea, and should be incorporated into other competitions, like the Rugby World Cup, and other sports, like the Champions League. Think how much more exciting it would be if the Champions League had the top teams playing their best team for 6 group games and not just 4 and 2 with reserves.

The second bit of magic about the Heineken Cup is the state of second place teams in the competition. Not having a number of pools to allow for just winners, or both winners and second place, means that more teams are watching every pool. Which means fans are more interested in all games, and not just games that concern their team. Having 6 pools, with 2 second place qualifying and 3 going to the Amlin, is great for both competitions.

In any re-structuring of the competition, I believe these are key components that need to be kept.

Therefore, the proposition of reducing the competition from 24 to 20 teams will mean it won't be 6 pools of 4 anymore. Putting one of those components at risk. It could be 4 pools of 5, which means all second place qualify, which is a disaster, or 5 pools of 4. This would mean, 3 second place teams qualify, and potentially the top 3rd team qualify for the Amlin, which might be a bit much, but isn't a disaster. It's not as good as 6 pools, so my preference would be to keep 24 teams.

Qualification as it happens now is as follows (from wikipedia) :

22 places are awarded by country, with each country deciding how to allocate their allotted places:

England: six teams (selected by performance in Aviva Premiership and Anglo-Welsh Cup)
France: six teams (selected by performance in Top 14 Championship)
Ireland: three teams (selected by performance in Pro 12)
Wales: three teams (selected by performance in Pro 12)
Scotland: two teams (selected by participation in Pro 12)
Italy: two teams (selected by participation in Pro 12) 

Starting with the 2009–10 season, the remaining two places in the 24-team tournament for the following season are filled by the winners of the Heineken Cup and European Challenge Cup. If a trophy winner has already qualified for the Heineken Cup by virtue of its league position, that country will receive an extra Heineken Cup place (assuming that the country has an extra team that can take up a place; Scotland has only two top-level professional teams, as does Italy since the 2010–11 season). However, England and France are capped at seven Heineken Cup places each. If either country produces the winners of both European cups, the last place will be filled by the highest ERC-ranked club not of that nation to not have otherwise qualified. The latter rule also applies if one of Scotland's two Pro 12 teams wins a European trophy.

The problem with this is that is allows Pro 12 teams a free ride in, and means their proportion of money is heavily in their favour.

There is room for manoeuvre in this aspect. If the English and French teams got an extra team each, with potential for more, and the Pro12 got 7 teams total, with 1 from each country guaranteed and the rest from the highest place finish. Guaranteeing more of a competitive Pro 12, while still having teams from different countries, which is important.

This has 21 spots, with an extra two based on before with winners from the Heineken and Amlin Cups, and potentially pick the best team from outside these countries in an attempt to widen the rugby horizon. Which is what rugby is all about.

In conclusion, a Anglo-French competition would drastically reduce competiveness across Europe, and take away a competition that has captivated audiences since it's conception.

End Of Season Review

Connacht

Connacht look like they are finally coming of age. After a second successive season in the Heineken Cup, they performed admirably with 3 wins, including a fantastic win over Biarritz. Domestically, they finished in 8th position, their best position ever, which is about where they should be finishing. With a ever improving squad, with plenty of young talent that keep getting better, the likes of Robbie Henshaw, Tiernan O'Halloran and Kieran Marmion will want to improve on 8th and start challenging for qualification from the pool stages.

Leinster

Possibly not the best season by their elevated standards over the last few years, but any season that ends with two trophies has to be considered as positive. Being put in Clermont's pool in the Heineken Cup meant that qualifying was always going to be a challenge, and a midseason dip didn't help matters. But as all good teams do, they carved out wins, and ended up at the business end of the season with two finals, winning both and using a large number of their squad. Joe may have left for higher honours, and other key players like Johnny Sexton, Isa Nacewa and Heinke van der Merwe may be leaving, but with the likes of Brian O'Driscoll and Leo Cullen signed on, and Mike McCarthy and Matt O'Connor incoming, Leinster will look to continue their trophy winning form and building on some exciting talent in Jordi Murphy, Jack McGrath and Luke McGrath.

Munster

A team in transition will sum up their year. Fans seems disenchanted with new coach Rob Penney's plan for the team in the initial part of the year. However, fortunes turned with a historic win over Harlequins in the Stoop, and despite being out of contention in the Rabo Pro 12 for the first time in years, there are plenty of optimism going forward. Conor Murray finally stepped up to the challenge, and with players now buying into the plan, and Paul O'Connell maintaining fitness, Munster won't be too far away the top 4 next season. The departures of Ronan O'Gara and Doug Howlett will hurt them, but with Simon Zebo, Peter O'Mahony and Murray growing in stature, players like Ian Keatley and CJ Stander have big seasons ahead of them.

Ulster

What seemed like a great season in the making suffered a devastating dip after Christmas. A remarkable  run of victories in difficult circumstances at the start of the year was something to behold, but the rails came off with their first loss of the season vs Northampton in Round 4 of the Heineken Cup. That's their first loss in December! A large number of talented youngsters appeared this season, with Niall Annett, Peter Nelson, Stuart Olding, Chris Cochrane, Ricky Andrew and Michael Allen impressing. The likes of Luke Marshall and Paddy Jackson have had good seasons, and will look to kick on and firmly establish themselves in the Irish setup. The final loss last weekend will strengthen them, and will be in a strong position for larger honours next year. Watch out, we could be set for a period of Northern dominance.

Irish based Team of the Season

1. Dave Kilcoyne
2nd choice: Tom Court

There were some strong contenders, with Cian Healy and Jack McGrath impressing in bits this year. Callum Black was an able replacement for Ulster, and Denis Buckley showed he has promise, but a huge breakout year for Dave Kilcoyne, where he cemented himself as Ireland's 2nd choice no.1, and looks set to drive Cian Healy to improve year on year to keep his position. Tom Court had a great year after being written off after the fiasco against England in the previous year's 6 Nations.


2. Rory Best
2nd choice: Mike Sherry

Now that he's rightly in the Lions set up, we can look back at how good Rory Best was this year. One of Ireland's best performers in the 6 Nations, Best was awesome around the park, making turnovers, driving the strong Ulster scrum and being a leader in any team he played in. The Lions will be stronger for his inclusion. Mike Sherry has now established himself as Munster no.1, and seems to have usurped Sean Cronin as third in line to Best's Ireland jersey. Harris Wright had a strong season, and Strauss was decent but was injured for too much of the season.

3. John Afoa
2nd choice: Nathan White

John Afoa was a rock for Ulster this year. An extremely fierce scrummager, who offers plenty around the park too, Afoa is one of Europe's premier tightheads. Mike Ross looked tired all season, and BJ Botha has had better seasons.

4. Mike McCarthy
2nd choice: Michael Swift

McCarthy more than proved that he wasn't a token Connacht selection in the Irish setup with an impressive performance in the 6 Nations. His partnership with his second row partner Michael Swift was one of the reasons for Connacht's good season.

5. Donnacha Ryan
2nd choice: Dan Tuohy

Donnacha Ryan has come of age. He grew in stature this season in the absence of Paul O'Connell even though he seemed to fade a little bit when the great man returned. Such was Ryan's great season that he was being spoken as being unlucky to have missed out on Lions selection in some areas.

6. Iain Henderson
2nd choice: Robbie Diack

Much has been made of the talent of Iain Henderson. However it took him until midway through this season to show me his devastating ball-carrying abilities that lift teams. A future beckons on the international stage, perhaps at second row, but for now he had a great season at blindside. Needs to continue to improve next season and work even harder.

7. Tommy O'Donnell
2nd choice: Chris Henry

How Tommy O'Donnell is still uncapped for Ireland I'll never know. Probably my player of the season, O'Donnell stood up and fronted up like no other Munster player this season. Now Ireland's best openside, Schmidt could do worse than build his backrow around him next season.

8. Nick Williams
2nd choice: Peter O'Mahony

The IRUPA player of the year was devastating this year, showing a bigger workrate and ball carrying devastation than was seen during his time at Munster. Jamie Heaslip only contended in the last few weeks, while O'Mahony got better as the campaign went on.

9. Kieran Marmion
2nd choice: Conor Murray

The only player to start every game of the Rabo Pro12, Marmion has had a hugely successful breakout year, directly after graduating from the under 20s. His selection on the US tour is just reward for a fine season where he displayed maturity beyond his 21 years.

10. Ian Madigan
2nd choice: Jonathan Sexton

Whatever about Marmion's breakout year, Madigan rose to crazy heights this year. Firmly establishing himself as backup outhalf on the national stage after starring in Leinster's run in, and cementing his position as first choice once Sexton leaves. Sexton himself didn't have a bad season, and the national team missed him more than anyone once he was ruled out of the 6 Nations.

11. Simon Zebo
2nd choice: Isa Nacewa

Zebo is another to have a "breakout" year of sorts. Although he was established in the Munster set up, he's gone on to national prominence and his bit of skill against Wales was revered throughout the world

12. Luke Marshall
2nd choice: Dave McSharry

What a player Luke Marshall is. For more on my thoughts about him, check out my article that came out the day he was named in the side to play Scotland. If it wasn't for all of the concussions, young Luke might have been the bolter everyone wanted for the Lions. He is someone who has it all, and needs to be managed carefully next season.

13. Darren Cave
2nd choice: Brian O'Driscoll

Cave enjoyed a wonderful season in Ulster, and seems to enjoy playing outside Olding or Marshall and with running off the magicians that are Pienaar and Payne. Contenders in outside centre were hard to come by, and O'Driscoll gets in on his limited gametime.


14. Andrew Trimble
2nd choice: Craig Gilroy

For someone who scored as many tries, and important tries, for their province as Andrew Trimble did this season, it's baffling that he ends the season as low down on the international pecking order as he did. Trimble was one of Ulster's best performers, and with Gilroy and Bowe performing well when injured, Trimble has stepped up to the challenge to keep his spot in the Ulster XV.

15. Jared Payne
2nd choice: Robbie Henshaw

What can you say about Jared Payne? He is just a magician. He is one of the reasons why Ulster were so much better than last year. He's one of the reasons why the difference between Leinster and Ulster was reduced by 24 points in a year. He will be a huge asset to Ireland when he qualifies. Robbie Henshaw had a great breakthrough year too directly out of school. He has a bright future ahead of him.

Breakdown:
Connacht 2+4;
Leinster 1+3;
Munster 4+3;
Ulster 8+5;

Heineken Cup Qualification 2013/2014

After crunching some numbers, depending on results on Friday, this will be the seedings for next year's Heineken Cup.

On Friday, Leinster play Stade Francais in the Amlin Challenge Cup final. Leinster have already qualified for next year's Heineken Cup, but Stade haven't, and a victory for them earns their qualification. If Leinster win, a spot in next year's qualification goes to Connacht by virtue of them being the only team in their country not to have qualified so far.

On Saturday, Toulon play Clermont in an all French final. Both teams have already qualified, so there's one spot up for grabs.

Here's where things get slightly complicated. French and English clubs are capped at 7 for the Heineken Cup, i.e. both countries can only have 6 or 7. So, if Stade Francais win on Friday night, they will enter next season's Heineken Cup as the 7th French team. This means that the spot that would usually go to the first French team that haven't qualified because of their domestic position (Perpignan), would actually go to the highest ERC ranked team that hasn't qualified but is eligible. (Wasps)

Which means:
On Friday night:
A Leinster win - Connacht and Perpignan are through to the Heineken Cup
A Stade win - Stade and Wasps are through to the Heineken Cup.

i.e. Nothing depends on Saturday

Got it?

Therefore the seedings for next year's competition will be:

1st Seeds (1-6)

1. Leinster
2. Clermont /Toulon (The winners on Saturday will move to 2nd, but it has no realistic effect)
3. Toulouse
4. Toulon / Clermont
5. Munster
6. Ulster / Stade (If Stade win on Friday, they'll move to 6th, relegating Ulster to 2nd seeds)

2nd Seeds (7-12)

7. Ulster / Northampton
8. Northampton / Harlequins
9. Harlequins / Cardiff
10. Cardiff / Saracens
11. Saracens / Leicester
12. Leicester / Perpignan (If Leinster win, Perpignan sneak in here, which lifts Ulster up to 1st seeds, as Stade won't qualify)

3rd Seeds (13-18)

13. Edinburgh
14. Wasps / Ospreys (If Wasps get in)
15. Ospreys / Scarlets
16. Scarlets / Glasgow
17. Glasgow/ Montpeiller
18. Montpeiller / Connacht (It's between Wasps / Connacht)

4th Seeds (19-24)

19. Gloucester
20. Castres
21. Racing
22. Exeter
23. Treviso
24. Zebre

Meaning there could be a group of:

Leinster
Harlequins
Glasgow
Racing

or a group of:
Stade
Perpignan
Edinburgh
Zebre

Review of the provinces weekend

First weekend that all Irish Provinces win. Ever. That's something all Irish Rugby fans should be proud of.

Connacht just scraped through on Friday against Zebre, in what was a really boring match. It was hard to concentrate on it, and with Quins and Biarritz with slight relevance to the permutations.

However, from what I did see, Henshaw performed with confidence that one gets with their first call up to the national squad, and O'Hallorhan continued his great form. He can't be too far away.

Ulster also looked lethargic, but should be boosted by winning for the first time in France, especially with so many key players out; Nick Williams, Johann Muller, Dan Tuohy, Stephen Ferris, Tommy Bowe and Jared Payne. I can't help get the feeling that while that depth is impressive, if anything were to happen to Ruan Pienaar, they would really struggle.

Looking forward to the Heineken quarters for them, they have a great chance away to Saracens in the quarters and possibly hosting Toulon who were so bad against Montpeiller on Saturday or Leicester, who they've beaten before. A second final in a row is a likely possibility. Hopefully too, as I've tickets this year.

Munster looked a different team in the space of a week. It looked like they had the 13 changes. They went from being absolutely awful against a worse Edinburgh "team", to looking like world beaters today. People like Simon Zebo and Conor Murray finally stepped up. They showed that Penney's plan can work, and they looked dangerous at all times.

The have the potential for a great team with a core of young players stepping up, with Kilcoyne, Sherry, Ryan, O'Mahony, O'Donnell, Murray, Keatley and Zebo showing well today. They all need to be more consistent, which is the next challenge for these guys. And they have Stander, Butler and JJ Hanrahan in particular to come through. The future could be bright, but need more consistency. 

I've always thought the difference between a good player and a great player isn't how they are at the top of their game, it's what they are like when not on form. Conor Murray is a good player, who when playing badly, nearly becomes a liability. But someone like Zebo, or Heaslip, who has been getting a lot of criticism, still affects the games in a positive way when they are playing badly. Munster need their good young players to develop into these great players.

As for their European hopes, Quins aren't the toughest side left in the competition, but they have improved since Munsters last meeting with them. It'll be extremely tough, but not impossible. What is impossible, is for this Munster side to get a result against Clermont, in Clermont in the semi's were they to get there.

As for Leinster, It's a case of what could have been. From the lack of bonus points in their first two games, to not capitalising away to Clermont when the games was their. Hopefully they'll go for the Amlin, mostly because I also have tickets to that.

As for their match, they got the 4 tries, but it should have been more. It was like last week, in that they weren't as clinical as they needed to be, even coming away with the 4 tries. And the defence wasn't what it should have been, with Exeter still in the game themselves. 

I don't  know if that's a great team playing badly, or a bad team playing well for Leinster. They looked dangerous again, but rusty. And switched off too much to allow Exeter a chance to win the game with 5 minutes remaining.

Heineken Cup issues

With the excitement of the Heineken Cup reaching boiling point, it's a sad backdrop to think this competition is threatened with the English and French clubs wanting change.

Those clubs are challenging the rights of the Italian and Scottish teams that automatically qualify for the Heineken Cup and who get more money per team than the English and French teams who they maintain bring all the money to the competition. All of which makes 100% sense.

However, some of their suggestions for reform are too drastic, too unfair in the other direction, and are designed to losing some of the magic of the Heineken Cup.

And there are things about the Heineken Cup that make it the best competition in all of sport. There are few competitions that generate a huge amount of excitement with each match day  One of the main reasons for this is the way nothing is decided about qualifying from pools until every game is played.

This comes about from two reasons; 1. The top placed winner plays the 8th seed in the quarters at the home of the top seed, and so on. This ensures that even if a team has qualified from their pool, that they still put out strong teams and keep going in every game. Personally, I think this is a great idea, and should be incorporated into other competitions, like the Rugby World Cup, and other sports, like the Champions League. Think how much more exciting it would be if the Champions League had the top teams playing their best team for 6 group games and not just 4 and 2 with reserves.

The second bit of magic about the Heineken Cup is the state of second place teams in the competition. Not having a number of pools to allow for just winners, or both winners and second place, means that more teams are watching every pool. Which means fans are more interested in all games, and not just games that concern their team. Having 6 pools, with 2 second place qualifying and 3 going to the Amlin, is great for both competitions.

In any re-structuring of the competition, I believe these are key components that need to be kept.

Therefore, the proposition of reducing the competition from 24 to 20 teams will mean it won't be 6 pools of 4 anymore. Putting one of those components at risk. It could be 4 pools of 5, which means all second place qualify, which is a disaster, or 5 pools of 4. This would mean, 3 second place teams qualify, and potentially the top 3rd team qualify for the Amlin, which might be a bit much, but isn't a disaster. It's not as good as 6 pools, so my preference would be to keep 24 teams.

Qualification as it happens now is as follows (from wikipedia) :

22 places are awarded by country, with each country deciding how to allocate their allotted places:

England: six teams (selected by performance in Aviva Premiership and Anglo-Welsh Cup)
France: six teams (selected by performance in Top 14 Championship)
Ireland: three teams (selected by performance in Pro 12)
Wales: three teams (selected by performance in Pro 12)
Scotland: two teams (selected by participation in Pro 12)
Italy: two teams (selected by participation in Pro 12)

Starting with the 2009–10 season, the remaining two places in the 24-team tournament for the following season are filled by the winners of the Heineken Cup and European Challenge Cup. If a trophy winner has already qualified for the Heineken Cup by virtue of its league position, that country will receive an extra Heineken Cup place (assuming that the country has an extra team that can take up a place; Scotland has only two top-level professional teams, as does Italy since the 2010–11 season). However, England and France are capped at seven Heineken Cup places each. If either country produces the winners of both European cups, the last place will be filled by the highest ERC-ranked club not of that nation to not have otherwise qualified. The latter rule also applies if one of Scotland's two Pro 12 teams wins a European trophy.


The problem with this is that is allows Pro 12 teams a free ride in, and means their proportion of money is heavily in their favour.

There is room for manoeuvre in this aspect. If the English and French teams got an extra team each, with potential for more, and the Pro12 got 7 teams total, with 1 from each country guaranteed and the rest from the highest place finish. Guaranteeing more of a competitive Pro 12, while still having teams from different countries, which is important.

This has 21 spots, with an extra two based on before with winners from the Heineken and Amlin Cups, and potentially pick the best team from outside these countries in an attempt to widen the rugby horizon. Which is what rugby is all about.

Heineken Cup permutations UPDATED

Sky Sport's permutations

Sky give a decent overview of the situation, but don't into too much detail. I've been looking at the remaining fixtures and come up with things that seem likely, or pivotal games for all concerned.

sidenote: This is why the Heineken Cup is such a fantastic competition. So many things to play for even if you are qualified ensures that you don't get meaningless games like you would in the Champions League.

extra thought: Why not incorporate the quarter final draw system into the RWC? It could make things so much more interesting. IT's one of the best things about rugby, why not use that?

Anyway, I digress.

In chronological order:

Friday: Pool 3

RESULT : Harlequins 28 points

Not much to play for on Friday. The only game of note is between Biarritz and Harlequins in Biarritz. Harlequins are already through, and I think have a home quarter final secured, with 24 points and only 3 other teams capable of reaching that total. Biarritz can get a maximum of 19 points which would be enough to put them in the mix. Hopefully Harlequins are aiming for as high a seeding as possible, which would mean two things;

1. Biarritz won't get 19 points and are therefore not going to qualify
2. They seem the "weakest" of the teams likely to get home quarter finals. Which will be relevant later from an Irish P.O.V.

Prediction: Harlequins 28 points.

Saturday: 1.30 GMT Pool 4

Both games seem relevant in terms of teams still mathematically in the competition. Northampton travel to Glasgow needing maximum 5 points to be in with a chance of qualifying on 19 points. One thing against them is their low try tally which stands at 6 at the moment. A 5 pointer brings it to at least 10, but will that be enough? It is a poor Glasgow side, so backing Northampton to get the 4 tries is likely.
The other game in the pool sees Ulster, who have already qualified, travel to Castres. Ulster have never won in France, and need a win to secure a home quarter final. Castres are still mathematically in with a chance, and can qualify with 18 points, but so many things need to go their way, that I'm not going to waste my time or yours. Bonus point win for Ulster guarentees a home quarter, which seems necessary given some of the other ties, but Castres are no mugs, and having never won in France, a bonus point win seems a daunting challenge. It all depends on whether or not Castres are up for it and whether they want a Challenge Cup place or not.

Here's hoping.

Prediction: Ulster 23 points.

3.40 GMT Pool 6

Possibly the most important tie of the round. Scratch that, Definitely the most important tie of the competition so far.

Toulon (23 points, 23 tries) travel to Montpeiller (18 points). Toulon will qualify as at least a second place team, but Montpeiller  can overtake them with a bonus point win and more than 22 points. It seems unlikely.

Toulon only need a point to qualify for a home quarter final, but a bonus point win, almost guarentees them one of the top two seedings, and theoretically an "easier" draw.

If Montepeiller win, or manage to get any points from this game at all, they will squeeze through.

From an Irish point of view, a Toulon bonus point win, by more than 7, and denying Montpeiller 4 tries, both frees up both 2nd place spots, and ensures one of the 2nd place teams play Toulon.

Another, Here's hoping.

Prediction: Toulon 28 points, Montpellier 18 points.

6pm GMT Pool 5

To the Irish provinces, Leinster, 15 points, need at least a win. 19 points might be enough, but with their low try count, 8, they can't be assured of that. At this stage they will know how many 2nd place spots are up for grabs with Montpeiller and Toulon's game having finished.

If Montpeiller lose and don't have more than 20 points, then Leinster qualify with a bonus point win, provided how unlikely it is that Toulouse will get two points in a loss to Leicester (to come). A win without the bonus, might be enough, if Biarritz don't reach 19, and other results go their way.

But let's not leave it up to chance eh?

Clermont, like Toulon, need only a point to have a home quarter final, and effectively a semi final place. A bonus point win, which is likely given their form and Scarlet's atrociousness, means they will seed at least 3rd, and probably one of the top two, meaning watch out Irish provinces. It all comes back to that Pool 6 game.

Prediction: Clermont 28 points, Leinster 20 points

Sunday: 12 45 GMT Pool 1

Munster (15) host Racing, and Saracens (18) host Edinburgh.

Munster, still in with an outside chance of winning the group, but they won't. Edinburgh are too bad a side to trouble Saracens, and Sarries are likely to get a bonus point win, and will be sniffing at the heels of Ulster to see who gets to be at home between them. If Ulster didn't get the bonus point, Sarries will be max 5 tries away from overtaking them, which given they are going for a 4 try bonus point, is nothing. Those teams are likely to be seeded 4th and 5th, and will play each other.

Munster also need a win. They will know how much of a win they'll need, and given Biarritz shouldn't be on 19 points, they will have the most tries of any team on 19, so a bonus point might not be necessary. Which is fortunate, because I don't think they will get it. After last weekends poor performance, I'm not 100% sure they will even win. But again, with a French side out of the competition, they might try and focus on the Top 14, especially given it's an away game.

Prediction: Saracens 23 points, Munster 19 points.

3pm GMT: Pool 2

Given Spratt's last minute try for Ospreys in that cracking draw in the Liberty stadium at the weekend, this game takes on slightly less significance. Still important though.

Leicester (16 points) take on Toulouse (18 points)

It's winner takes all, unless Leicester win by 7, without 4 tries, but Toulose get 4 tries. In that scenario both teams end up on 20 points, and Toulouse advance given their superior head to head match point count. However, That should be enough for Leicester to take a runners up spot, and with 13 tries, that would be likely.

The only other possibility for both teams to go through is if Leicester win with a bonus, and Toulouse get a second place, or Toulouse could still qualify with one match point on 19 points, if the second place team only has that much.

This is probably hardest to call. All of those situations seem unlikely, and I think Toulouse will be too good and avoid all the complications.

In fact, given this is the last game of the round, were any of those outcomes to arise, one would have to suspect some match-fixing. But that's only a frivolous observation.

Prediction: Toulouse 22 points.

Quarter Final Draw

1. Harlequins v 8. Munster
2. Toulon v 7. Leinster
3. Clermont v 6. Toulouse
4. Ulster v 5. Saracens

Gives a solid chance of all three Irish sides in the semis with a mouth watering tie of Clermont and Toulouse.

Heineken Cup Round 4: An Irish Perspective

I don't think there as been a worse weekend from an Irish rugby's point of view.

Not only for results, but some key injuries, and what these results mean from this tournament, and subsequent tournaments.

Let's start off with Connacht. I don't know what to think of them. Just as I dismiss them as nobodies, they go and put in a terrific 80 minutes performance and end up beating someone like Biarritz. Comfortably.

I have to say, I'm excited about the future over there. They have some fantastic young Irish backs coming through; Henshaw, O'Hallorhan, McSharry and Marmion in particular, as well as some good young forwards too.

It's all well and good that these "tyros" are playing week in week out, and in a high standard of the H Cup; but if they are developing a habit of losing, or being so inconsistent that performances only occur once in a season, then that can't be good for their development.

Eric Elwood has done a fantastic job, and whoever takes over has to kick on. They need to be finishing more mid table in the Rabo, and nearer to the top then the bottom of the table. Realistically, they have good players, and there is no reason why they can't. They are better than the Italian, Scottish and one or two of the Welsh teams.

Leinster were beaten up at the weekend. I'm never seen a more lacklustre performance from them. Never mind about the gift of a bonus point, they aren't getting through.

Admittedly there are a lot of injuries, but they have a lot of depth in some talented youngsters that need to start stepping up.

Strauss will be a blow for the next 4 weeks. I have to say I thought it could be worse at the time.

On the positive side; Eoin O'Malley and Luke Fitzgerald are back soon. Both need a good long run in the team, injury free and hopefully both will show the talent that they have promised for so long.

Ulster are the least worst off of the provinces. Yes the record is gone, but that might prove to be a good thing. Less pressure, and they should still go through with probably a home quarter-final.

Tommy Bowe looks like he could be a big loss. I think this will put his Lions tour in doubt. Hopefully Gilroy will establish himself, and play consistently. They also have young Chris Cochrane and Peter Nelson who could possibly get some more gametime as a result.

Munster played well on Sunday. Not well enough to win unfortunately. But they aren't the side of past glories. They do have some key injuries, but it's hard to see what's happening for the future with so many injuries.

Ronan O'Gara showed how much they will struggle without him, and I don't think that Keatley is up to much. JJ Hanrahan needs to decide his best position - 10 or 12 and just go with it. He could be something special.

Zebo admittedly had a great game, surprised me, and hinted that he might have more potential and something about him than I thought.

Ulster will be the only Irish team to go through to the knockout stages. I do think either Leinster or Munster will make the Amlin. Which might be good for me, because I've tickets to the final of both.

For future tournaments, with the English and French throwing the toys out of the pram, them winning 11 out of 12 matchs this weekend was not a good thing. It shows that the competition is reliant on them, and that the Welsh and Irish sides need to improve.

The Heineken Cup is a fantastic tournament, all the permutations between different pools make each round exciting. This needs to be kept as much as possible going forward.